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Title
Japanese: 
English:Modeling complex flow dynamics of fluvial floods exacerbated by sea level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta 
Author
Japanese: 池内寛明, 平林由希子, 山崎大, 木口雅司, KOIRALA Sujan, 長野 宇規, 小寺 昭彦, 鼎信次郎.  
English: Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Dai Yamazaki, Masashi Kiguchi, Sujan KOIRALA, Nagano Takanori, Akihiko Kotera, Shinjiro Kanae.  
Language English 
Journal/Book name
Japanese: 
English:Environmental Research Letters 
Volume, Number, Page Volume 10    Number 12   
Published date Dec. 8, 2015 
Publisher
Japanese: 
English: 
Conference name
Japanese: 
English: 
Conference site
Japanese: 
English: 
Official URL http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124011/meta
 
DOI https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124011
Abstract Global warming is likely to exacerbate future fluvial floods in the world's mega-delta regions due to both changing climate and rising sea levels. However, the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on fluvial floods in such regions have not been taken into account in current global assessments of future flood risk, due to the difficulties in modeling channel bifurcation and the backwater effect. We used a state-of-the-art global river routing model to demonstrate how these complexities contribute to future flood hazard associated with changing climate and SLR in the world's largest mega-delta region, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. The model demonstrated that flood water in the main channels flows into tributaries through bifurcation channels, which resulted in an increase in inundation depth in deltaic regions. We found that there were large areas that experienced an increase in inundation depth and period not directly from the SLR itself but from the backwater effect of SLR, and the effect propagated upstream to locations far from the river mouth. Projections under future climate scenarios as well as SLR indicated that exposure to fluvial floods will increase in the last part of the 21st century, and both SLR and channel bifurcation make meaningful contributions.

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