Home >

news Help

Publication Information


Title
Japanese: 
English:Analog prediction of tropical cyclone-induced precitation in Luzon, Philippines 
Author
Japanese: HOKSON Jose Angelo Arocena, 鼎 信次郎.  
English: Hokson Jose Angelo, Shinjiro Kanae.  
Language English 
Journal/Book name
Japanese:水文・水資源学会研究発表会要旨集 
English: 
Volume, Number, Page        
Published date Sept. 2022 
Publisher
Japanese:水文・水資源学会 
English: 
Conference name
Japanese:水文・水資源学会／日本水文科学会 2022年度研究発表会 
English: 
Conference site
Japanese:京都 
English: 
Official URL https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jshwr/35/0/35_181/_article/-char/ja
 
DOI https://doi.org/10.11520/jshwr.35.0_181
Abstract Current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models produce relatively large errors in forecasting TC-induced precipitation. Because of that, lots of alternative methods are being developed nowadays. An analog forecasting method has been proposed by Bagtasa (2021) for the Philippines, a country that receives around twenty typhoons yearly. While the methodology produces good results, it still has its limitations due to the techniques and datasets used. This study aims to improve the aforementioned methodology by limiting the area of study to Luzon Island and introducing dynamical adjustments and uncertainties in computing precipitation. Currently, the study is in its early stages. Initial results show promising values that are on par with a previous study. Further implementation of proposed improvements is needed to properly check whether the modified methodology addresses the issues of the original methodology. Ultimately, we believe that this study will further advance the field of forecasting TC-induced precipitation in the region.

©2007 Tokyo Institute of Technology All rights reserved.