Based on the classification provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the damage level of buildings impacted by the 2011 Great
East Japan tsunami can be separated into six levels (from minor damage to washed away).
The objective of this paper is to identify the significant predictor variables and the direction
of their potential relationship to the damage level in order to create a predicting formula for
damage level. This study used the detailed data of damaged buildings in Ishinomaki city,
Miyagi prefecture, Japan, collected by MLIT. The explanatory variables tested included
the inundation depth, number of floors, structural material, and function of the building.
Ordinal regression was applied to model the relationship between the ordinal outcome
variable (damage level) and the predictors. The findings indicated that inundation depth,
structural material, and function of building were significantly associated with the damage
level. In addition to this new type of model, this research provides a valuable insight into
the relative influence of different factors on building damage and suggestions that may help
to revise the classification of current standards. This study can contribute to academic
tsunami research by assessing the contribution of different variables to the observed
damage using new approaches based on statistical analysis and regression. Moreover, practical applications of these results include understanding of the predominant factors
driving tsunami damage to structures, implementation of the relevant variables into the
proposed, or alternative model in order to improve current damage predictions by taking
into account not only inundation depth, but also variables such as structural material and
function of building.
受賞情報
Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology Dean Award 2014
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