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Title
Japanese: 
English:Global assessment of flood-induced displacement 
Author
Japanese: 柿沼 薫, Puma Michael Joseph, 平林 由希子, 田上 雅浩, Emerson A Baptista, 鼎 信次郎.  
English: Kaoru Kakinuma, Michael Joseph Puma, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Emerson A Baptista, Shinjiro Kanae.  
Language English 
Journal/Book name
Japanese: 
English: 
Volume, Number, Page        
Published date Dec. 2020 
Publisher
Japanese: 
English:AGU 
Conference name
Japanese: 
English: 
Conference site
Japanese: 
English: 
Official URL https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/722629
 
Abstract Assessments of climate change impacts on human security are one of the urgent issues in the world. Especially, extreme whether events such as floods often cause population displacements that force people to displace their residences temporally or permanently. Moreover, magnitude and frequency of floods are projected to increase and thus it is largely concerned that future climate changes may amplify risks of such population displacements. However, complex and multiple social and environmental factors drive population displacements, and it is difficult to estimate high potential areas of displacements at a global scale. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by mapping potential flood exposures and observed flood-induced displacements during 2008-2013. A global river and inundation model (Cama-Flood) is used to estimate the potential flood-exposed population in each country in the world. Flood-induced displacements during are derived from Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) datasets. We found that countries in Africa may be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacements even at low to mid-level flood exposures. Both exposures and displacements are high in Asian countries such as India, China and the Philippines. On the other hand, less vulnerable countries are found in Europe such as Netherland and Finland. Country income levels (Gross National Income) significantly impact flood-induced displacements, high income countries have lower flood-induced displacements than low and middle income countries. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacements is nonlinear, and this indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacements between high and low income countries. We suggest that low income countries particularly in Africa face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacements and may need to improve adaptation to even small flood exposures.

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