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Title
Japanese: 
English:Global flood impacts on population displacements 
Author
Japanese: 柿沼 薫, Puma Michael Joseph, 平林 由希子, 田上 雅浩, Emerson Baptista, 鼎 信次郎.  
English: Kaoru Kakinuma, Michael Puma, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Emerson Baptista, Shinjiro Kanae.  
Language English 
Journal/Book name
Japanese: 
English: 
Volume, Number, Page        
Published date Dec. 16, 2021 
Publisher
Japanese: 
English: 
Conference name
Japanese: 
English:AGU Fall Meeting 2021 
Conference site
Japanese:ハイブリッド開催 
English:New Orleans & Online 
Official URL https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm21/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/880624
 
Abstract Extreme weather impacts on population migration are one of the most important global issues. In particular, floods often caused large number of population displacements. According to Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 14 million people were displaced due to floods in the world in 2020. On the other hand, complex and multiple social and environmental factors drive population displacements, and it is difficult to estimate high potential areas of displacements at a global scale. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by integrating population displacement data with flood exposures during 2008-2013. A global river and inundation model (Cama-Flood) is used to estimate the potential flood-exposed population in each country in the world. Flood-induced displacements are derived from IDMC datasets. We found that countries in Africa such as Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritania, and Zimbabwe may be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacements even at low to mid-level flood exposures. Both exposures and displacements are high in Asian countries such as India, China and the Philippines. On the other hand, less vulnerable countries are found in Netherland and Finland. Country income levels (Gross National Income) significantly impact flood-induced displacements, high income countries have lower flood-induced displacements than low and middle income countries. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacements is nonlinear, and this indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacements between high and low income countries. On the other hand, countries such as Vietnam where people were living with floods for a long time, were relatively low displacements to extremely high exposures. Their society may have developed adaptive capacities to floods. We suggest that countries where have low income and low adaptive capacities to floods, particularly in Africa face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacements. Water-human interactions are needed to consider to assess flood impacts on society.

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