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Title
Japanese:全国の多目的ダムでの事前放流に求められる降雨予測精度の水準や改善の方向性 
English:Level and Direction of Improvement of Rainfall Forecast Accuracy Required for Pre-Release at Multi-Purpose Dams in Japan 
Author
Japanese: 藤田 隼人, 鼎 信次郎.  
English: Hayato Fujita, Shinjiro Kanae.  
Language Japanese 
Journal/Book name
Japanese:土木学会論文集B1（水工学） 
English:Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 
Volume, Number, Page 78    2    I1237-I1242
Published date Nov. 2022 
Publisher
Japanese:公益社団法人 土木学会 
English: 
Conference name
Japanese:第67回水工学講演会 
English: 
Conference site
Japanese:愛媛県松山市 
English: 
Official URL https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jscejhe/78/2/78_I_1237/_article/-char/ja
 
DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejhe.78.2_I_1237
Abstract We organized the final level and goal of rainfall forecast accuracy required for dam pre-release by targeting at multi-purpose dams in Japan and rainfall for the past 16 years, as the use of numerical rainfall forecast for it is becoming more active at dams nationwide. Specifically, we assessed the impact on the index directly related to the judgement of pre-release calculated by inputting observed rainfall as it is or with processing to runoff-dam model. As a result, just several events requiring pre-release happened nationwide per year. They were caused mainly by typhoon body and stationary front in descending order. Required lead time is within a day and a half in Typhoon cases, and ranges to 2-3 days in front cases. This indicates the whole lead time of current Meso-Scale Model should be high accurate and be also extended further. About spatial distribution, it is indicated that current model’s resolution is generally sufficient, and the level of position accuracy should be finer than the one of current forecasting by one digit.

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