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Title
Japanese:都市化と気候変動が3つの巨大都市の将来の熱快適性に与える影響: SSP370シナリオ 
English:URBANIZATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON FUTURISTIC THERMAL COMFORT OF THREE MEGACITIES: SSP370 SCENARIO 
Author
Japanese: JINXIAO, VarquezAlvin Christopher Galang, Do Ngoc Khanh, Tomohiko Ihara, 伊坪徳宏, 神田学.  
English: Xiao Jin, Alvin C. G. Varquez, Do Ngoc Khanh, Tomohiko Ihara, Norihiro Itsubo, Manabu Kanda.  
Language English 
Journal/Book name
Japanese: 
English:Journal of JSCE Special Publication 
Volume, Number, Page        
Published date Feb. 20, 2026 
Publisher
Japanese: 
English:J-STAGE 
Conference name
Japanese: 
English: 
Conference site
Japanese:福島県郡山市 
English: 
File
DOI https://doi.org/10.2208/journalofjscesp.25-16117
Abstract Rising climate hazards in urban areas, driven by global climate change and intensified by urbanization, are increasing extreme thermal stress, posing significant risks to thermal comfort and socioeconomic well-being. This study projects high-resolution future urban climate and thermal stress for 2050 under the SSP370 scenario, a high-emission, low-mitigation pathway from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In this research, hourly 1.5 × 1.5-km projections of meteorology and Universal Temperature Climate factor (UTCI) were generated, incorporating urbanization effects (future urban morphology and anthropogenic heat emissions change) across three major cities: Tokyo, Cairo, and Jakarta. Under SSP370, both UTCI and air temperature increase substantially across all cities, with UTCI showing stronger responses. Urban change effects vary distinctly across cities: Tokyo shows cooling due to reduced anthropogenic heat emissions, with air temperature responding more strongly than UTCI, while Cairo and Jakarta experience warming from continued urban development. Despite these differences, the magnitudes of urban change effects are inversely correlated with background temperature across all cities. Analysis of feature importance through machine-learning reveals that urban change-induced UTCI responses are radiation-dominated in Tokyo and Cairo, contrasting with ventilation-dominated responses in humid Jakarta.

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