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タイトル
和文: 
英文:On the cost of misperceived travel time variability 
著者
和文: Xiao Yu, 福田 大輔.  
英文: Yu XIAO, Daisuke FUKUDA.  
言語 English 
掲載誌/書名
和文: 
英文:Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 
巻, 号, ページ Vol. 75        pp. 96-112
出版年月 2015年4月4日 
出版者
和文: 
英文:Elsevier 
会議名称
和文: 
英文: 
開催地
和文: 
英文: 
ファイル
公式リンク http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.014
 
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.014
アブストラクト Because individuals may misperceive travel time distributions, using the implied reduced form of the scheduling model might fall short of capturing all costs of travel time variability. We reformulate a general scheduling model employing rank-dependent utility theory and derive two special cases as econometric specifications to study these uncaptured costs. It is found that reduced-form expected cost functions still have a mean–variance form when misperception is considered, but the value of travel time variability is higher. We estimate these two models with stated-preference data and calculate the empirical cost of misperception. We find that: (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure times too early to achieve a minimum cost, (ii) scheduling preferences elicited using a stated-choice method can be relatively biased if probability weighting is not considered, and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving the travel time distribution might be nontrivial when time is valued differently over the time of day and is substantial for some people.

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